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Tuesday March 10, 2009
Are Asian Economies Stabilizing? Seven Upbeat Signs In his latest investment strategy report, Daniel Casali, a strategist at Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, outlines what he believes are seven signs that show Asia is stabilising. First, China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose for the third consecutive month. Chinese output and new orders are now expanding after seven months of contraction, driven by domestic demand. China's manufacturing PMI moved up to 49.0 in February and is close to pre-Lehman levels. The output component rose to 51.2, signalling growth (above boom-bust 50 level) for the first time since September. New orders are also in expansion mode at 50.4 Second, Korea's inventory-shipments ratio has improved for two consecutive months, and this ratio has an excellent relationship with Asia equity prices. A pick-up in this ratio could signal better days ahead for share prices. Third, Korean export growth has improved. Korean export growth moved from disastrous to less disastrous. In first 20 days of February, exports to China were up 3% year-on-year and exports to the US were down only 3%. Read the full article here.
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